Belarus vs. Albania: O/U 3.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 86¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$917.58

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 86¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares6,521

Combined PnL-$915.08

Over4 traders

Total Value$37.59

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$2.49

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lonmi2511	Underavg 85¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$38.82	59% 747-512 (1259)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 83¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$739.69	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 84.2¢	$783.02	$748.98	-$34.04	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
0xheavy888	Underavg 83¢	$332	$200	-$132	56% 668-530 (1198)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 84.6¢	$292.73	$192.75	+$5.12	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
FO foooool	Underavg 83.5¢	$124.31	$128.78	+$4.47	41% 127-186 (313)
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 81¢	$150.66	$93	-$57.66	44% 337-422 (759)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$18.69	$17.8	-$0.89	48% 1307-1398 (2705)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 81¢	$10.62	$10.44	-$0.18	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$9.24	$8.8	-$0.44	46% 882-1039 (1921)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100	Overavg 16.9¢	$6.95	$6.18	-$0.77	49% 548-579 (1127)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$5.2	$4.81	-$0.39	41% 739-1047 (1786)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 78¢	$3.9	$3.98	+$0.08	39% 1579-2471 (4050)

lonmi2511

Under

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$38.82

Record

59%

747-512 (1259)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,860.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$739.69

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$783.02

Value

$748.98

PnL

-$34.04

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$332

Value

$200

PnL

-$132

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$292.73

Value

$192.75

PnL

+$5.12

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

foooool

Under

Invested

$124.31

Value

$128.78

PnL

+$4.47

Record

41%

127-186 (313)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$150.66

Value

$93

PnL

-$57.66

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.69

Value

$17.8

PnL

-$0.89

Record

48%

1307-1398 (2705)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$10.62

Value

$10.44

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.24

Value

$8.8

PnL

-$0.44

Record

46%

882-1039 (1921)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.95

Value

$6.18

PnL

-$0.77

Record

49%

548-579 (1127)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0.39

Record

41%

739-1047 (1786)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.08

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.