Belarus vs. Albania: O/U 2.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 65¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15

Over36¢Under64¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$19.88

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 64.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares6,427

Combined PnL+$78.07

Over2 traders

Total Value$921.91

Total Shares2,634

Combined PnL-$97.94

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 64¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$14.55	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 62¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$43.99	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 64¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$12.75	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$8.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 35¢	$297.5	$301.75	+$4.25
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 64¢	$982.51	$992.12	+$9.6	42% 548-748 (1296)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$685.01	$690.37	+$5.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 35¢	$297.5	$301.75	+$4.25
0xheavy888	Underavg 64¢	$769.57	$775.59	+$6.01	56% 668-530 (1198)
KY Kyn008CTR	Overavg 38¢	$810.91	$746.93	-$63.98	41% 156-221 (377)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 64¢	$207.07	$208.69	+$1.62	30% 489-1134 (1623)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 64¢	$455.89	$187.54	+$11.41	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
fyrskenCTR	Overavg 41.8¢	$208.94	$174.98	-$33.96	48% 67-73 (140)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 58.5¢	$8.02	$8.14	+$0.48	53% 2316-2081 (4397)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,715.47

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$14.55

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,363.82

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$43.99

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,385.49

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$12.75

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

Both legs:

Invested

$982.51

Value

$992.12

PnL

+$9.6

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

Both legs:

Under$685.0164¢+$5.35

Over$297.535¢+$4.25

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$769.57

Value

$775.59

PnL

+$6.01

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

Kyn008CTR

Over

Invested

$810.91

Value

$746.93

PnL

-$63.98

Record

41%

156-221 (377)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$207.07

Value

$208.69

PnL

+$1.62

Record

30%

489-1134 (1623)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$455.89

Value

$187.54

PnL

+$11.41

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

fyrskenCTR

Over

Invested

$208.94

Value

$174.98

PnL

-$33.96

Record

48%

67-73 (140)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$8.02

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.