Belarus vs. Albania: O/U 1.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 65¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Over65¢Under35¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$6.11

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 64.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares6,891

Combined PnL+$34.45

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares7,251

Combined PnL-$28.35

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Overavg 65¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$32.31	41% 156-221 (377)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 35¢	$958.02	$971.71	+$13.69	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 35¢	$572.15	$555.8	-$16.35	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 35¢	$507.59	$493.42	-$14.17	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 35¢	$326.56	$317.23	-$9.33	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
0xheavy888	Overavg 65¢	$260	$262	+$2	56% 663-529 (1192)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 35¢	$162.24	$159.92	-$2.32	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 64¢	$18.56	$18.71	+$0.15	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$8.4	$8.4	+$0	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$2.12	$2.25	+$0.13	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

Kyn008

Over

Invested

$4,200.11

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$32.31

Record

41%

156-221 (377)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$958.02

Value

$971.71

PnL

+$13.69

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$572.15

Value

$555.8

PnL

-$16.35

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$507.59

Value

$493.42

PnL

-$14.17

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$326.56

Value

$317.23

PnL

-$9.33

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$260

Value

$262

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$162.24

Value

$159.92

PnL

-$2.32

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$18.56

Value

$18.71

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.12

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.