Belarus vs. Albania: O/U 0.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$362.5

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares11,007

Combined PnL+$364.14

Under4 traders

Total Value$40.25

Total Shares387

Combined PnL-$1.63

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Overavg 84¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$225	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 85¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$95.43	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 87¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$11.84	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
0xheavy888	Overavg 88.3¢	$526.18	$521.16	-$5.02	56% 668-530 (1198)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 89¢	$605.32	$303.13	+$22.42	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 95¢	$200	$210.45	+$10.45	83% 289-60 (349)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 83¢	$107	$111.96	+$4.96	41% 127-186 (313)
└ Over leg	Overavg 83¢	$73.04	$73.04	-$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 14.8¢	$33.96	$38.92	+$4.96
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 84¢	$68.51	$85.2	+$16.69	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
└ Over leg	Overavg 84¢	$53.21	$56.69	+$3.48
└ Under leg	Underavg 5.6¢	$15.31	$28.51	+$13.2
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 84.2¢	$75.8	$80.1	+$4.3	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$32.9	$35.89	+$2.99	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
DV dv-pm<$100	Overavg 90¢	$8.55	$8.27	-$0.29	46% 45-53 (98)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$1.09	$2.29	+$1.2	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$1.7	$2.04	+$0.34	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 12.5¢	$6.19	$0.02	-$6.16	48% 2555-2763 (5318)

cigarettes

Over

Invested

$3,780

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$225

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$3,162.5

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$95.43

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,787.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$11.84

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$526.18

Value

$521.16

PnL

-$5.02

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$605.32

Value

$303.13

PnL

+$22.42

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$210.45

PnL

+$10.45

Record

83%

289-60 (349)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$107

Value

$111.96

PnL

+$4.96

Record

41%

127-186 (313)

Both legs:

Over$73.0483¢-$0

Under$33.9614.8¢+$4.96

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$68.51

Value

$85.2

PnL

+$16.69

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Both legs:

Over$53.2184¢+$3.48

Under$15.315.6¢+$13.2

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$75.8

Value

$80.1

PnL

+$4.3

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.9

Value

$35.89

PnL

+$2.99

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

dv-pm<$100

Over

Invested

$8.55

Value

$8.27

PnL

-$0.29

Record

46%

45-53 (98)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.09

Value

$2.29

PnL

+$1.2

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.7

Value

$2.04

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.19

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.16

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.