Spread: Albania (-1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Belarus (56%) · Belarus at 59¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Albania41¢Belarus59¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Belarus

Consensus Traders

Belarus 56%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$247.53

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 59¢

-21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBelarus at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Belarus

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Albania41%

Belarus59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Belarus5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,607

Combined PnL-$387.8

Albania4 traders

Total Value$358.37

Total Shares961

Combined PnL+$140.27

Belarus — 56%Albania — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Belarus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlbania 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Belarus 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Belarusavg 73.7¢	$1.2K	$952.59	-$202.31	49% 4708-4979 (9687)
0xheavy888	Belarusavg 79¢	$632	$472	-$160	56% 676-534 (1210)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Albaniaavg 21.1¢	$116.26	$203.85	+$87.58	52% 2509-2300 (4809)
38 38791873984189	Belarusavg 70.3¢	$338.8	$161.7	-$25.72	48% 3992-4380 (8372)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Albaniaavg 21¢	$67.55	$119.02	+$51.47	38% 1372-2254 (3626)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Belarusavg 57.3¢	$36.42	$38.9	+$2.49	39% 1592-2508 (4100)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Albaniaavg 42¢	$30.69	$29.96	-$0.73	41% 744-1053 (1797)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Belarusavg 64¢	$28.8	$26.55	-$2.25	48% 2573-2776 (5349)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Albaniaavg 24¢	$3.6	$5.55	+$1.95	53% 2375-2109 (4484)

Flaznorp

Belarus

Invested

$1,154.9

Value

$952.59

PnL

-$202.31

Record

49%

4708-4979 (9687)

0xheavy888

Belarus

Invested

$632

Value

$472

PnL

-$160

Record

56%

676-534 (1210)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Albania

Invested

$116.26

Value

$203.85

PnL

+$87.58

Record

52%

2509-2300 (4809)

38791873984189

Belarus

Invested

$338.8

Value

$161.7

PnL

-$25.72

Record

48%

3992-4380 (8372)

LightParadoxCTR

Albania

Invested

$67.55

Value

$119.02

PnL

+$51.47

Record

38%

1372-2254 (3626)

topdogbigboi<$100

Belarus

Invested

$36.42

Value

$38.9

PnL

+$2.49

Record

39%

1592-2508 (4100)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Albania

Invested

$30.69

Value

$29.96

PnL

-$0.73

Record

41%

744-1053 (1797)

ferdinand2<$100

Belarus

Invested

$28.8

Value

$26.55

PnL

-$2.25

Record

48%

2573-2776 (5349)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Albania

Invested

$3.6

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$1.95

Record

53%

2375-2109 (4484)

Research grade

NeutralBelarus at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Belarus

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Belarus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAlbania 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Belarus 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Belarus wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.