Belarus vs. Albania: 1st Half O/U 1.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 76¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Over25¢Under75¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$25.39

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 75.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,365

Combined PnL+$52.28

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares5,136

Combined PnL-$77.67

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 76.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$22.49	50% 747-737 (1484)
LO lonmi2511	Underavg 72.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$51.94	59% 747-512 (1259)
fxwd12345CTR	Overavg 27.4¢	$773	$678.15	-$94.85	73% 58-22 (80)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 23¢	$277.38	$295.47	+$18.09	35% 635-1160 (1795)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 73.3¢	$490.24	$199.88	+$14.28	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 25¢	$154.5	$151.41	-$3.09	44% 337-422 (759)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 24¢	$114.96	$117.36	+$2.39	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 72.5¢	$84.11	$87.58	+$3.47	56% 656-516 (1172)
FO forecastication4<$100	Underavg 73¢	$59.86	$62.32	+$2.46	36% 201-360 (561)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 72¢	$47.14	$49.76	+$2.62	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$1.9	$1.69	-$0.21	46% 3282-3819 (7101)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,598.18

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$22.49

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

lonmi2511

Under

Invested

$1,270.83

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$51.94

Record

59%

747-512 (1259)

fxwd12345CTR

Over

Invested

$773

Value

$678.15

PnL

-$94.85

Record

73%

58-22 (80)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$277.38

Value

$295.47

PnL

+$18.09

Record

35%

635-1160 (1795)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$490.24

Value

$199.88

PnL

+$14.28

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$154.5

Value

$151.41

PnL

-$3.09

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$114.96

Value

$117.36

PnL

+$2.39

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$84.11

Value

$87.58

PnL

+$3.47

Record

56%

656-516 (1172)

forecastication4<$100

Under

Invested

$59.86

Value

$62.32

PnL

+$2.46

Record

36%

201-360 (561)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$47.14

Value

$49.76

PnL

+$2.62

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.21

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.