Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Belarus vs. Albania end in a draw?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 32¢ · $748 held · ends Nov 15

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$747.7

Combined PnL

$18.98

Smart Money Entry

30.2¢ → 31.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$542.2

Total Shares1,714

Combined PnL+$22.73

No4 traders

Total Value$205.5

Total Shares296

Combined PnL-$3.75

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 29.6¢	$207.63	$220.98	+$13.36	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 30.6¢	$113.41	$116.92	+$3.52	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$99.36	$104.12	+$4.76	42% 548-748 (1296)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$93.51	$92.48	-$1.03	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$83.25	$84.59	+$1.34	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 68¢	$57.42	$57.85	+$0.42	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 70¢	$42	$40.8	-$1.2	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 68.3¢	$93.61	$14.37	-$1.94	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$10	$10.16	+$0.16	19% 29-120 (149)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$5.83	$5.43	-$0.41	17% 858-4055 (4913)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$207.63

Value

$220.98

PnL

+$13.36

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$113.41

Value

$116.92

PnL

+$3.52

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$99.36

Value

$104.12

PnL

+$4.76

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$93.51

Value

$92.48

PnL

-$1.03

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.25

Value

$84.59

PnL

+$1.34

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$57.42

Value

$57.85

PnL

+$0.42

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$40.8

PnL

-$1.2

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$93.61

Value

$14.37

PnL

-$1.94

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

19%

29-120 (149)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.83

Value

$5.43

PnL

-$0.41

Record

17%

858-4055 (4913)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.