Belarus vs. Albania: Both Teams to Score

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 61¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$27.77

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 60.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$488.57

Total Shares859

Combined PnL-$3.17

Yes5 traders

Total Value$325.37

Total Shares765

Combined PnL+$30.94

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 59.7¢	$767.19	$742.87	-$24.32	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
└ No leg	Noavg 59.7¢	$613.64	$586.05	-$27.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.1¢	$153.55	$156.82	+$3.27
0xheavy888	Noavg 57.1¢	$450.52	$445.78	-$4.74	56% 668-530 (1198)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$91.85	$109.91	+$18.06	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38¢	$58.37	$79.87	+$21.5
└ No leg	Noavg 53.5¢	$33.49	$30.04	-$3.44
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 39.3¢	$450.12	$109.02	+$29.33	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$101.57	$107.56	+$5.99	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$70.68	$66.47	-$4.21	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$34.76	$34.75	-$0	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 58.1¢	$25.76	$27.06	+$1.3	41% 127-186 (313)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 59.5¢	$15.46	$15.73	+$0.27	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$7.74	$7.56	-$0.18	38% 1354-2191 (3545)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$767.19

Value

$742.87

PnL

-$24.32

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Both legs:

No$613.6459.7¢-$27.59

Yes$153.5542.1¢+$3.27

0xheavy888

Invested

$450.52

Value

$445.78

PnL

-$4.74

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.85

Value

$109.91

PnL

+$18.06

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Both legs:

Invested

$450.12

Value

$109.02

PnL

+$29.33

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$101.57

Value

$107.56

PnL

+$5.99

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.68

Value

$66.47

PnL

-$4.21

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.76

Value

$34.75

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

foooool<$100

Invested

$25.76

Value

$27.06

PnL

+$1.3

Record

41%

127-186 (313)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$15.46

Value

$15.73

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.74

Value

$7.56

PnL

-$0.18

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.