Will Belarus win on 2026-11-15?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 79¢ · $568 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$568.03
-$0.76
78.3¢ → 78.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 79¢ | $321.05 | $316.98 | -$4.06 | 38% 1314-2163 (3477) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $90.01 | $90.01 | -$0 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $55.46 | $56.92 | +$1.46 | 35% 138-251 (389) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $45.6 | $46.8 | +$1.2 | 53% 7468-6589 (14057) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $17.73 | $17.73 | +$0 | 56% 649-514 (1163) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $17.27 | $17.49 | +$0.22 | 42% 547-747 (1294) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $14.66 | $15.01 | +$0.35 | 41% 1173-1667 (2840) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $4.48 | $4.42 | -$0.06 | 37% 1333-2226 (3559) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $2.55 | $2.68 | +$0.13 | 59% 3948-2729 (6677) |
Invested
$321.05
Value
$316.98
PnL
-$4.06
Record
38%
1314-2163 (3477)
Invested
$90.01
Value
$90.01
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Invested
$55.46
Value
$56.92
PnL
+$1.46
Record
35%
138-251 (389)
Invested
$45.6
Value
$46.8
PnL
+$1.2
Record
53%
7468-6589 (14057)
Invested
$17.73
Value
$17.73
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
649-514 (1163)
Invested
$17.27
Value
$17.49
PnL
+$0.22
Record
42%
547-747 (1294)
Invested
$14.66
Value
$15.01
PnL
+$0.35
Record
41%
1173-1667 (2840)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$4.42
PnL
-$0.06
Record
37%
1333-2226 (3559)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.68
PnL
+$0.13
Record
59%
3948-2729 (6677)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.