Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Albania win on 2026-11-15?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 50¢ · $884 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$884.44
-$2.01
49.8¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $672.33 | $670.5 | -$1.83 | 49% 4290-4528 (8818) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $348.95 | $352.23 | +$3.28 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.8¢ | $323.38 | $318.27 | -$5.11 | |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $52.24 | $51.21 | -$1.02 | 62% 240-146 (386) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $48.46 | $48.46 | -$0 | 41% 469-682 (1151) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $31.2 | $29.4 | -$1.8 | 53% 7310-6373 (13683) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $27.45 | $27.72 | +$0.27 | 56% 598-472 (1070) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $23.26 | $23.49 | +$0.24 | 61% 1067-670 (1737) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.7¢ | $17.38 | $17.32 | -$0.06 | 53% 2063-1842 (3905) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $9.66 | $9.66 | -$0 | 59% 3879-2660 (6539) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $4.23 | $4.28 | +$0.04 | 41% 1108-1568 (2676) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $67.72 | $2.4 | +$0.32 | 48% 2325-2529 (4854) |
Invested
$672.33
Value
$670.5
PnL
-$1.83
Record
49%
4290-4528 (8818)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.24
Value
$51.21
PnL
-$1.02
Record
62%
240-146 (386)
Invested
$48.46
Value
$48.46
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
469-682 (1151)
Invested
$31.2
Value
$29.4
PnL
-$1.8
Record
53%
7310-6373 (13683)
Invested
$27.45
Value
$27.72
PnL
+$0.27
Record
56%
598-472 (1070)
Invested
$23.26
Value
$23.49
PnL
+$0.24
Record
61%
1067-670 (1737)
Invested
$17.38
Value
$17.32
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
2063-1842 (3905)
Invested
$9.66
Value
$9.66
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
3879-2660 (6539)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$4.28
PnL
+$0.04
Record
41%
1108-1568 (2676)
Invested
$67.72
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.32
Record
48%
2325-2529 (4854)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.