Belgium vs. Italy: O/U 3.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 63¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Over38¢Under62¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$24.87

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 62.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,508

Combined PnL+$0.94

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,854

Combined PnL+$23.93

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Underavg 63¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$0	41% 156-221 (377)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 63.1¢	$345.2	$344.5	-$0.7	52% 2477-2265 (4742)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 37¢	$278.46	$282.22	+$3.76	38% 1322-2171 (3493)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 37¢	$264.66	$268.24	+$3.58	38% 1346-2208 (3554)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 35.1¢	$235.16	$248.18	+$13.02	49% 4647-4916 (9563)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	64% 145-82 (227)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$126	+$26
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$74	-$26
38 38791873984189	Underavg 62.4¢	$166.69	$168.21	+$1.52	48% 3964-4319 (8283)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 37¢	$132.33	$134.12	+$1.79	38% 1340-2232 (3572)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 37¢	$132.33	$134.12	+$1.79	38% 1346-2184 (3530)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 63¢	$63	$63	+$0	56% 652-516 (1168)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 63¢	$26.61	$26.61	-$0	56% 667-530 (1197)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 62¢	$7.57	$7.69	+$0.12	53% 2306-2072 (4378)

Kyn008

Under

Invested

$2,859.84

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

156-221 (377)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$345.2

Value

$344.5

PnL

-$0.7

Record

52%

2477-2265 (4742)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$278.46

Value

$282.22

PnL

+$3.76

Record

38%

1322-2171 (3493)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$264.66

Value

$268.24

PnL

+$3.58

Record

38%

1346-2208 (3554)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$235.16

Value

$248.18

PnL

+$13.02

Record

49%

4647-4916 (9563)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

145-82 (227)

Both legs:

Invested

$166.69

Value

$168.21

PnL

+$1.52

Record

48%

3964-4319 (8283)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$132.33

Value

$134.12

PnL

+$1.79

Record

38%

1340-2232 (3572)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$132.33

Value

$134.12

PnL

+$1.79

Record

38%

1346-2184 (3530)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$63

Value

$63

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

652-516 (1168)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$26.61

Value

$26.61

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

667-530 (1197)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.57

Value

$7.69

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

2306-2072 (4378)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.