Belgium vs. Italy: O/U 0.5

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$31.16

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,482

Combined PnL+$85.58

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.06

Total Shares2,144

Combined PnL-$116.73

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (16 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 95¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$125.57	34% 127-245 (372)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 94.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$65.55	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$426.16	$430.24	+$4.09	98% 691-11 (702)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 94¢	$317.65	$334.54	+$16.88	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 94¢	$46.99	$49.97	+$2.97	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 94¢	$21.93	$23.32	+$1.39	47% 507-561 (1068)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 98¢	$219.47	$14.47	+$0.07	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 95¢	$3.52	$3.67	+$0.15	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$1	$1	-$0	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 4.8¢	$36.09	$0.38	-$35.71	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$42.21	$0.35	-$41.86	35% 669-1223 (1892)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$31.77	$0.26	-$31.5	41% 147-213 (360)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$4.88	$0.04	-$4.84	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 5.6¢	$2.56	$0.02	-$2.54	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$0.23	$0	-$0.23	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$0.05	$0	-$0.05	54% 6095-5185 (11280)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$2,410

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$125.57

Record

34%

127-245 (372)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,155.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$65.55

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$426.16

Value

$430.24

PnL

+$4.09

Record

98%

691-11 (702)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$317.65

Value

$334.54

PnL

+$16.88

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$46.99

Value

$49.97

PnL

+$2.97

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$21.93

Value

$23.32

PnL

+$1.39

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$219.47

Value

$14.47

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$0.15

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.09

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$35.71

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.21

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$41.86

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.77

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$31.5

Record

41%

147-213 (360)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.88

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.84

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.56

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.54

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.23

Value

PnL

-$0.23

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (16 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.