Will Italy win on 2026-11-15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$51.98

Smart Money Entry

68¢ → 69.5¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,907

Combined PnL+$52.48

Yes1 trader

Total Value$30.5

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$0.5

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 69¢	$679.79	$689.68	+$9.88	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
GU guilttrip	Noavg 65¢	$487.81	$525.12	+$37.31	43% 16-21 (37)
GC GC-P	Noavg 69¢	$254.47	$256.32	+$1.84	36% 329-580 (909)
NM NM-P	Noavg 69¢	$252.03	$253.86	+$1.83	59% 3738-2564 (6302)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 69.5¢	$118.36	$118.38	+$0.02	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 70¢	$75.06	$75.06	+$0	32% 95-201 (296)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 69¢	$63.48	$64.4	+$0.92	56% 434-347 (781)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69¢	$47.04	$47.73	+$0.68	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
leflaiveCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$31	$30.5	-$0.5	48% 16-17 (33)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$679.79

Value

$689.68

PnL

+$9.88

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

guilttrip

Invested

$487.81

Value

$525.12

PnL

+$37.31

Record

43%

16-21 (37)

GC-P

Invested

$254.47

Value

$256.32

PnL

+$1.84

Record

36%

329-580 (909)

NM-P

Invested

$252.03

Value

$253.86

PnL

+$1.83

Record

59%

3738-2564 (6302)

38791873984189

Invested

$118.36

Value

$118.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$75.06

Value

$75.06

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

95-201 (296)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$63.48

Value

$64.4

PnL

+$0.92

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$47.04

Value

$47.73

PnL

+$0.68

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

leflaiveCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31

Value

$30.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

48%

16-17 (33)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.