Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Italy?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 93¢ · $878 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$877.77
-$13.89
95.1¢ → 92.7¢
-3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 96¢ | $426.28 | $384.76 | -$41.52 | 38% 1401-2279 (3680) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.1¢ | $199.39 | $183.18 | -$16.21 | 46% 1234-1428 (2662) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 88.3¢ | $111.91 | $113.33 | +$1.42 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $63.73 | $57.52 | -$6.21 | 38% 1416-2272 (3688) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $77.98 | $49.7 | +$50.25 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $53.45 | $47.54 | -$5.91 | 38% 1425-2300 (3725) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $35.39 | $35.5 | +$0.11 | 59% 3971-2747 (6718) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $1.9 | $5.55 | +$3.65 | 46% 3397-3944 (7341) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.16 | $0.69 | +$0.52 | 40% 2689-4008 (6697) |
Invested
$426.28
Value
$384.76
PnL
-$41.52
Record
38%
1401-2279 (3680)
Invested
$199.39
Value
$183.18
PnL
-$16.21
Record
46%
1234-1428 (2662)
Invested
$111.91
Value
$113.33
PnL
+$1.42
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
Invested
$63.73
Value
$57.52
PnL
-$6.21
Record
38%
1416-2272 (3688)
Invested
$77.98
Value
$49.7
PnL
+$50.25
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
Invested
$53.45
Value
$47.54
PnL
-$5.91
Record
38%
1425-2300 (3725)
Invested
$35.39
Value
$35.5
PnL
+$0.11
Record
59%
3971-2747 (6718)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$5.55
PnL
+$3.65
Record
46%
3397-3944 (7341)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.52
Record
40%
2689-4008 (6697)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.