Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Italy?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$12.71

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 95.8¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,660

Combined PnL+$5.05

Yes4 traders

Total Value$20.26

Total Shares415

Combined PnL+$7.66

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 94.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$7.29	46% 1216-1411 (2627)
NM NM-P	Noavg 94.9¢	$939.78	$937.57	-$2.22	59% 3966-2735 (6701)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 95.4¢	$477	$476.75	-$0.25	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$28.78	$28.95	+$0.17	38% 1404-2275 (3679)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$9.43	$17.1	+$7.67	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$5.67	$5.72	+$0.05	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$1.96	$1.86	-$0.1	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$1.04	$1	-$0.04	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.16	$0.29	+$0.13	40% 2687-4008 (6695)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,073.93

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$7.29

Record

46%

1216-1411 (2627)

NM-P

Invested

$939.78

Value

$937.57

PnL

-$2.22

Record

59%

3966-2735 (6701)

MadridTime

Invested

$477

Value

$476.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$28.78

Value

$28.95

PnL

+$0.17

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.43

Value

$17.1

PnL

+$7.67

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.72

PnL

+$0.05

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.96

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.13

Record

40%

2687-4008 (6695)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.9%

95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.