Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Italy?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 97¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$2.6K
$15.63
96.7¢ → 96.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 96.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$28.56 | 38% 1406-2304 (3710) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.2¢ | $274.82 | $275.82 | +$1 | 46% 1216-1411 (2627) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $62.89 | $37.22 | -$25.67 | 48% 4769-5064 (9833) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $36 | +$8.97 | 20% 30-119 (149) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $26.02 | $25.94 | -$0.08 | 38% 1379-2246 (3625) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $18.72 | $18.98 | +$0.26 | 38% 1398-2248 (3646) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $56.7 | $15.01 | +$2.91 | 48% 4016-4413 (8429) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $13.8 | $13.41 | -$0.38 | 59% 3966-2735 (6701) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.16 | $0.22 | +$0.05 | 40% 2687-4008 (6695) |
Invested
$2,133.74
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$28.56
Record
38%
1406-2304 (3710)
Invested
$274.82
Value
$275.82
PnL
+$1
Record
46%
1216-1411 (2627)
Invested
$62.89
Value
$37.22
PnL
-$25.67
Record
48%
4769-5064 (9833)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$36
PnL
+$8.97
Record
20%
30-119 (149)
Invested
$26.02
Value
$25.94
PnL
-$0.08
Record
38%
1379-2246 (3625)
Invested
$18.72
Value
$18.98
PnL
+$0.26
Record
38%
1398-2248 (3646)
Invested
$56.7
Value
$15.01
PnL
+$2.91
Record
48%
4016-4413 (8429)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$13.41
PnL
-$0.38
Record
59%
3966-2735 (6701)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.22
PnL
+$0.05
Record
40%
2687-4008 (6695)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.