Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Italy?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $779 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
$779.12
$2.55
96.9¢ → 97.2¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 96.9¢ | $449.09 | $450.12 | +$1.03 | 38% 1374-2228 (3602) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 96.7¢ | $165.58 | $165.69 | +$0.11 | 43% 561-753 (1314) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $67.54 | $67.44 | -$0.11 | 59% 3960-2731 (6691) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $59.39 | $59.51 | +$0.12 | 36% 649-1179 (1828) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $23.36 | $24.2 | +$0.84 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $297.64 | $6.05 | +$0.79 | 48% 3997-4384 (8381) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $4.08 | $3.75 | -$0.33 | 46% 3336-3878 (7214) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $1.55 | $1.61 | +$0.06 | 48% 2576-2780 (5356) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $0.56 | $0.58 | +$0.02 | 41% 1195-1702 (2897) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.16 | $0.17 | +$0.01 | 40% 2685-4008 (6693) |
Invested
$449.09
Value
$450.12
PnL
+$1.03
Record
38%
1374-2228 (3602)
Invested
$165.58
Value
$165.69
PnL
+$0.11
Record
43%
561-753 (1314)
Invested
$67.54
Value
$67.44
PnL
-$0.11
Record
59%
3960-2731 (6691)
Invested
$59.39
Value
$59.51
PnL
+$0.12
Record
36%
649-1179 (1828)
Invested
$23.36
Value
$24.2
PnL
+$0.84
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Invested
$297.64
Value
$6.05
PnL
+$0.79
Record
48%
3997-4384 (8381)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$3.75
PnL
-$0.33
Record
46%
3336-3878 (7214)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$1.61
PnL
+$0.06
Record
48%
2576-2780 (5356)
Invested
$0.56
Value
$0.58
PnL
+$0.02
Record
41%
1195-1702 (2897)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.17
PnL
+$0.01
Record
40%
2685-4008 (6693)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.