Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Italy?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$2.1K
$33.04
92.8¢ → 84¢
-10% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 93¢ | $966.66 | $977.06 | +$10.39 | 35% 659-1202 (1861) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 92.7¢ | $475.56 | $482.18 | +$6.62 | 59% 3966-2735 (6701) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 93¢ | $325.49 | $325.49 | -$0 | 43% 567-758 (1325) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 92¢ | $138 | $139.5 | +$1.5 | 53% 1960-1712 (3672) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $72.35 | $73.12 | +$0.77 | 48% 4769-5064 (9833) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $26.57 | $26.57 | -$0 | 46% 1216-1411 (2627) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $133.49 | $20.55 | +$14.49 | 48% 4016-4413 (8429) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $9.89 | $8.97 | -$0.93 | 46% 3371-3906 (7277) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.16 | $0.36 | +$0.2 | 40% 2687-4008 (6695) |
Invested
$966.66
Value
$977.06
PnL
+$10.39
Record
35%
659-1202 (1861)
Invested
$475.56
Value
$482.18
PnL
+$6.62
Record
59%
3966-2735 (6701)
Invested
$325.49
Value
$325.49
PnL
-$0
Record
43%
567-758 (1325)
VeryLucky888Invested
$138
Value
$139.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
53%
1960-1712 (3672)
Invested
$72.35
Value
$73.12
PnL
+$0.77
Record
48%
4769-5064 (9833)
Invested
$26.57
Value
$26.57
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
1216-1411 (2627)
Invested
$133.49
Value
$20.55
PnL
+$14.49
Record
48%
4016-4413 (8429)
Invested
$9.89
Value
$8.97
PnL
-$0.93
Record
46%
3371-3906 (7277)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.36
PnL
+$0.2
Record
40%
2687-4008 (6695)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.