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5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 90¢ · $814 held · ended Nov 15

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$814.02

Combined PnL

$20.51

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 90¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$665.16

Total Shares735

Combined PnL+$21.23

Yes5 traders

Total Value$148.86

Total Shares412

Combined PnL-$0.72

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 90¢	$295.87	$292.58	-$3.29	43% 567-758 (1325)
NM NM-P	Noavg 90¢	$293.63	$290.37	-$3.26	59% 3966-2735 (6701)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$236	$119.79	-$1.21	64% 147-84 (231)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 90¢	$43.62	$43.14	-$0.48	46% 1216-1411 (2627)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$25.06	$25.06	+$0	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 91¢	$23.78	$23.52	-$0.26	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 89.3¢	$207.18	$15.55	+$28.52	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2.9	$2.9	+$0	55% 495-408 (903)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.16	$0.6	+$0.44	40% 2687-4008 (6695)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.46	$0.51	+$0.05	48% 4769-5064 (9833)

GC-P

Invested

$295.87

Value

$292.58

PnL

-$3.29

Record

43%

567-758 (1325)

NM-P

Invested

$293.63

Value

$290.37

PnL

-$3.26

Record

59%

3966-2735 (6701)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Yes

Invested

$236

Value

$119.79

PnL

-$1.21

Record

64%

147-84 (231)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$43.62

Value

$43.14

PnL

-$0.48

Record

46%

1216-1411 (2627)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.06

Value

$25.06

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$23.78

Value

$23.52

PnL

-$0.26

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

38791873984189

Invested

$207.18

Value

$15.55

PnL

+$28.52

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

495-408 (903)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.44

Record

40%

2687-4008 (6695)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.