Will Belgium vs. Italy end in a draw?
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 22%
$1.8K
-$7.87
74¢ → 74.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C6 C63AMG | Noavg 74¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$9.77 | 79% 22-6 (28) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $88.9 | $90.69 | +$1.79 | 49% 4635-4904 (9539) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $71.52 | $71.52 | +$0 | 59% 3949-2729 (6678) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $78.67 | $59.71 | -$18.96 | 48% 3953-4307 (8260) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $57.35 | $57.35 | +$0 | 38% 1342-2182 (3524) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $16.37 | $16.37 | +$0 | 37% 1336-2230 (3566) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $14.28 | $14.01 | -$0.27 | 46% 3240-3776 (7016) |
WA waiermaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $10 | $9.81 | -$0.19 | 19% 29-120 (149) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $8.78 | $8.78 | +$0 | 38% 1318-2168 (3486) |
Invested
$1,445.42
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$9.77
Record
79%
22-6 (28)
Invested
$88.9
Value
$90.69
PnL
+$1.79
Record
49%
4635-4904 (9539)
Invested
$71.52
Value
$71.52
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3949-2729 (6678)
Invested
$78.67
Value
$59.71
PnL
-$18.96
Record
48%
3953-4307 (8260)
Invested
$57.35
Value
$57.35
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1342-2182 (3524)
Invested
$16.37
Value
$16.37
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
1336-2230 (3566)
Invested
$14.28
Value
$14.01
PnL
-$0.27
Record
46%
3240-3776 (7016)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.81
PnL
-$0.19
Record
19%
29-120 (149)
Invested
$8.78
Value
$8.78
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1318-2168 (3486)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.