Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Belgium vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 40¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$28.86

Smart Money Entry

38.8¢ → 40¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,314

Combined PnL+$28.86

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 38.6¢	$811.61	$842.08	+$30.47	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 39¢	$336.79	$336.79	+$0	47% 1165-1328 (2493)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 39¢	$186.02	$186.02	+$0	42% 545-745 (1290)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 39¢	$112.32	$112.32	+$0	48% 468-503 (971)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 39¢	$105.88	$105.88	+$0	59% 3945-2726 (6671)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$68.8	$67.08	-$1.72	38% 1316-2144 (3460)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 38.8¢	$31.54	$31.68	+$0.14	41% 1163-1648 (2811)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$34.39	$15.39	+$0	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$11.42	$11.39	-$0.03	46% 3134-3672 (6806)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$811.61

Value

$842.08

PnL

+$30.47

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$336.79

Value

$336.79

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1165-1328 (2493)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$186.02

Value

$186.02

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

545-745 (1290)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$112.32

Value

$112.32

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

468-503 (971)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$105.88

Value

$105.88

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3945-2726 (6671)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$68.8

Value

$67.08

PnL

-$1.72

Record

38%

1316-2144 (3460)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$31.54

Value

$31.68

PnL

+$0.14

Record

41%

1163-1648 (2811)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$34.39

Value

$15.39

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$11.42

Value

$11.39

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.