Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Belgium win on 2026-11-15?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 43¢ · $832 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
1 arb excluded
$831.77
$10.97
43.9¢ → 42.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fyrskenCTR | Yesavg 44¢ | $352 | $360 | +$8 | 50% 56-56 (112) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $206.8 | $212.05 | +$5.25 | 59% 3805-2621 (6426) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42¢ | $153.43 | $155.25 | +$1.81 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54¢ | $53.36 | $56.8 | +$3.44 | |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $90.73 | $94.95 | +$4.22 | 48% 3305-3631 (6936) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $48.69 | $45.52 | -$3.18 | 33% 106-214 (320) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $31.78 | $31.78 | +$0 | 39% 402-638 (1040) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $30.1 | $31.5 | +$1.4 | 55% 532-434 (966) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.4¢ | $29.71 | $30.8 | +$1.1 | 53% 1867-1658 (3525) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $19.41 | $19.06 | -$0.35 | 38% 1068-1766 (2834) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $6.33 | $6.11 | -$0.22 | 37% 1043-1777 (2820) |
fyrskenCTRInvested
$352
Value
$360
PnL
+$8
Record
50%
56-56 (112)
Invested
$206.8
Value
$212.05
PnL
+$5.25
Record
59%
3805-2621 (6426)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.73
Value
$94.95
PnL
+$4.22
Record
48%
3305-3631 (6936)
Invested
$48.69
Value
$45.52
PnL
-$3.18
Record
33%
106-214 (320)
Invested
$31.78
Value
$31.78
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
402-638 (1040)
Invested
$30.1
Value
$31.5
PnL
+$1.4
Record
55%
532-434 (966)
Invested
$29.71
Value
$30.8
PnL
+$1.1
Record
53%
1867-1658 (3525)
Invested
$19.41
Value
$19.06
PnL
-$0.35
Record
38%
1068-1766 (2834)
Invested
$6.33
Value
$6.11
PnL
-$0.22
Record
37%
1043-1777 (2820)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.