Austria vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 4.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$202.38

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 97¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,284

Combined PnL-$11.36

Over5 traders

Total Value$230.37

Total Shares3,776

Combined PnL-$191.02

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 95.4¢	$724.9	$737.2	+$12.3	76% 257-83 (340)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 87¢	$598.6	$574.95	-$23.65	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 10.8¢	$394.39	$210.73	-$183.66	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 86¢	$14.9	$14.42	-$0.47	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 88¢	$13.93	$14.01	+$0.08	54% 503-422 (925)
HY hydra1248<$100	Underavg 86¢	$13.21	$13.59	+$0.38	75% 188-64 (252)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 9.9¢	$18.9	$12.35	-$6.55	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 5.6¢	$5.6	$5	-$0.6	52% 852-801 (1653)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$1.9	$1.74	-$0.16	46% 2762-3273 (6035)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$0.6	$0.55	-$0.05	42% 1031-1416 (2447)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$724.9

Value

$737.2

PnL

+$12.3

Record

76%

257-83 (340)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$598.6

Value

$574.95

PnL

-$23.65

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$394.39

Value

$210.73

PnL

-$183.66

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$14.9

Value

$14.42

PnL

-$0.47

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$13.93

Value

$14.01

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

hydra1248<$100

Under

Invested

$13.21

Value

$13.59

PnL

+$0.38

Record

75%

188-64 (252)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.9

Value

$12.35

PnL

-$6.55

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.6

Value

PnL

-$0.6

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$0.16

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.