Austria vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 2.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 53¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$108.83

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 52.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares9,129

Combined PnL+$87.65

Over7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,808

Combined PnL+$21.18

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 52¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$37.03	50% 2513-2472 (4985)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.39	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 48.3¢	$717.19	$764.52	+$47.33	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 48¢	$444	$448.63	+$4.63	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 48¢	$449.92	$445.41	-$4.51	37% 353-603 (956)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 48¢	$393.91	$398.01	+$4.1	42% 991-1360 (2351)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$197.16	$195.21	-$1.95	54% 493-416 (909)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$98.53	$99.54	+$1.01	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$72	$72.75	+$0.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$26.53	$26.79	+$0.26
KY Kyn008<$100	Underavg 49¢	$71.79	$76.18	+$4.4	41% 144-209 (353)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$63.52	$65.48	+$1.95	56% 462-367 (829)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$31.84	$33.47	+$1.62
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$31.68	$32.01	+$0.33
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 52¢	$63.09	$61.98	-$1.11	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$15.24	$15.44	+$0.2	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$8.92	$9.24	+$0.32	48% 286-304 (590)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$3,851.32

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$37.03

Record

50%

2513-2472 (4985)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,765.83

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.39

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$717.19

Value

$764.52

PnL

+$47.33

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$444

Value

$448.63

PnL

+$4.63

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$449.92

Value

$445.41

PnL

-$4.51

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$393.91

Value

$398.01

PnL

+$4.1

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$197.16

Value

$195.21

PnL

-$1.95

Record

54%

493-416 (909)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$98.53

Value

$99.54

PnL

+$1.01

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

Both legs:

Invested

$71.79

Value

$76.18

PnL

+$4.4

Record

41%

144-209 (353)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$63.52

Value

$65.48

PnL

+$1.95

Record

56%

462-367 (829)

Both legs:

Invested

$63.09

Value

$61.98

PnL

-$1.11

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.24

Value

$15.44

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.92

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$0.32

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.