Austria vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 1.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Over73¢Under27¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$7.46

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 73¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$860.09

Total Shares1,178

Combined PnL+$0.6

Under7 traders

Total Value$378.6

Total Shares1,421

Combined PnL+$6.85

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-66 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 73¢	$815.95	$815.95	-$0	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 25.4¢	$294.63	$300.66	+$6.02	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 72¢	$43.53	$44.14	+$0.6	48% 293-321 (614)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$39	$39	+$0	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$17.42	$17.42	+$0	55% 474-384 (858)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$12.83	$13.34	+$0.51	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$3	$3.25	+$0.25	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$3.2	$3.2	+$0	37% 977-1669 (2646)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$1.66	$1.73	+$0.07	48% 2109-2267 (4376)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$815.95

Value

$815.95

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$294.63

Value

$300.66

PnL

+$6.02

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$43.53

Value

$44.14

PnL

+$0.6

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39

Value

$39

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.42

Value

$17.42

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.83

Value

$13.34

PnL

+$0.51

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-66 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.