Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (93%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Austria vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 0.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 7.5¢ · $57 held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$57
$1.99
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 93%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $37.72 | $37.72 | +$0 | 53% 2108-1855 (3963) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 6.9¢ | $10.76 | $12.42 | +$1.66 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $4.64 | $4.64 | +$0 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $1.59 | $1.82 | +$0.23 | 42% 1008-1381 (2389) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $0.3 | $0.4 | +$0.1 | 53% 1809-1607 (3416) |
Invested
$37.72
Value
$37.72
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2108-1855 (3963)
Invested
$10.76
Value
$12.42
PnL
+$1.66
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$4.64
Value
$4.64
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$1.59
Value
$1.82
PnL
+$0.23
Record
42%
1008-1381 (2389)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
1809-1607 (3416)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.