Spread: Austria (-1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Republic of Ireland (56%) · Republic of Ireland at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Austria29¢Republic of Ireland71¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Republic of Ireland

Consensus Traders

Republic of Ireland 56%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$125.34

Smart Money Entry

68.8¢ → 71¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralRepublic of Ireland at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Republic of Ireland

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Austria29%

Republic of Ireland71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Republic of Ireland5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,477

Combined PnL-$125.46

Austria4 traders

Total Value$36.89

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$0.13

Republic of Ireland — 56%Austria — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Republic of Irelandavg 70¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$110.35	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Republic of Irelandavg 66.7¢	$538.51	$522.65	-$15.86	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
38 38791873984189<$100	Republic of Irelandavg 66¢	$72.65	$73.72	+$1.08	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Austriaavg 33¢	$24.26	$24.62	+$0.37	50% 73-72 (145)
GH ghorrock<$100	Republic of Irelandavg 66¢	$21.6	$21.28	-$0.33	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Austriaavg 33.9¢	$9.52	$9.28	-$0.24	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
DV dv-pm<$100	Republic of Irelandavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.3	+$0	45% 34-41 (75)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Austriaavg 33¢	$2.59	$2.59	+$0	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Austriaavg 33¢	$0.4	$0.4	+$0	48% 2157-2304 (4461)

Flaznorp

Republic of Ireland

Invested

$1,131.86

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$110.35

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

GoalLineGhost

Republic of Ireland

Invested

$538.51

Value

$522.65

PnL

-$15.86

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

38791873984189<$100

Republic of Ireland

Invested

$72.65

Value

$73.72

PnL

+$1.08

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Austria

Invested

$24.26

Value

$24.62

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

73-72 (145)

ghorrock<$100

Republic of Ireland

Invested

$21.6

Value

$21.28

PnL

-$0.33

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

suntoriCTR<$100

Austria

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.28

PnL

-$0.24

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

dv-pm<$100

Republic of Ireland

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

34-41 (75)

sentrioCTR<$100

Austria

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Austria

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2157-2304 (4461)

Research grade

NeutralRepublic of Ireland at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Republic of Ireland

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Republic of Ireland wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.