Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-11-14?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$3.96
83¢ → 83.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-2 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 83¢ | $438.25 | $442.48 | +$4.23 | 36% 317-553 (870) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $193.15 | $196.17 | +$3.02 | 60% 3726-2536 (6262) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 83¢ | $119.71 | $120.43 | +$0.72 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16¢ | $73.44 | $75.73 | +$2.29 | |
DA darkumbreon88 | Noavg 83¢ | $194.51 | $194.51 | +$0 | 62% 1023-638 (1661) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $77.27 | $77.27 | +$0 | 36% 910-1584 (2494) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 83.6¢ | $38.67 | $38.39 | -$0.28 | 32% 92-194 (286) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $31.54 | $31.54 | +$0 | 56% 426-340 (766) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 83.7¢ | $30.29 | $30.05 | -$0.24 | 50% 63-62 (125) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.7¢ | $9.51 | $9.63 | +$0.12 | 53% 1556-1404 (2960) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $9.11 | $9.22 | +$0.11 | 53% 1179-1029 (2208) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $0.35 | $0.38 | +$0.02 | 50% 3526-3585 (7111) |
Invested
$438.25
Value
$442.48
PnL
+$4.23
Record
36%
317-553 (870)
Invested
$193.15
Value
$196.17
PnL
+$3.02
Record
60%
3726-2536 (6262)
Both legs:
Invested
$194.51
Value
$194.51
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
1023-638 (1661)
Invested
$77.27
Value
$77.27
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
910-1584 (2494)
Invested
$38.67
Value
$38.39
PnL
-$0.28
Record
32%
92-194 (286)
Invested
$31.54
Value
$31.54
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
426-340 (766)
Invested
$30.29
Value
$30.05
PnL
-$0.24
Record
50%
63-62 (125)
Invested
$9.51
Value
$9.63
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
1556-1404 (2960)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$9.11
Value
$9.22
PnL
+$0.11
Record
53%
1179-1029 (2208)
Invested
$0.35
Value
$0.38
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
3526-3585 (7111)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.