Republic of Ireland leading at halftime?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $712 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$712.08

Combined PnL

$59.05

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$691.61

Total Shares735

Combined PnL+$57.73

Yes1 trader

Total Value$20.46

Total Shares157

Combined PnL+$1.32

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 83.9¢	$367.69	$401.97	+$34.28	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
VE Venusian	Noavg 87.2¢	$157.02	$179.24	+$22.22	37% 996-1715 (2711)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 89.2¢	$40.15	$40.73	+$0.58	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 86¢	$30.21	$29.86	-$0.35	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$19.14	$20.46	+$1.32	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 83¢	$18.42	$18.86	+$0.44	36% 979-1704 (2683)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 83¢	$8.3	$8.5	+$0.2	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.92	$5.1	+$0.18	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.92	$5.1	+$0.18	47% 936-1037 (1973)
wesolyjasiu<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.26	$2.26	+$0	100% 29-0 (29)

Flaznorp

Invested

$367.69

Value

$401.97

PnL

+$34.28

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

Venusian

Invested

$157.02

Value

$179.24

PnL

+$22.22

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$40.15

Value

$40.73

PnL

+$0.58

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$30.21

Value

$29.86

PnL

-$0.35

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.14

Value

$20.46

PnL

+$1.32

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$18.42

Value

$18.86

PnL

+$0.44

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$4.92

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$4.92

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

wesolyjasiu<$100

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.26

PnL

+$0

Record

100%

29-0 (29)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.