Will Austria vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 76¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$67.77

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 75.5¢

+1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares7,689

Combined PnL+$48.28

Yes4 traders

Total Value$535.13

Total Shares2,141

Combined PnL+$19.48

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 75¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$12.99	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 75¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10.08	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
GC GC-P	Noavg 75¢	$977.74	$990.55	+$12.8	37% 353-603 (956)
NM NM-P	Noavg 75¢	$926.16	$935.76	+$9.6	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$466.36	$485.79	+$19.43	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 75¢	$230.25	$231.79	+$1.53	48% 286-306 (592)
0xheavy888	Noavg 75¢	$150	$151	+$1	54% 496-419 (915)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 76¢	$40.28	$39.75	-$0.53	32% 99-207 (306)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$38.09	$38.09	+$0	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 75¢	$37.5	$37.75	+$0.25	30% 335-776 (1111)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 75¢	$37.5	$37.75	+$0.25	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75¢	$34.8	$35.03	+$0.23	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$33.35	$33.22	-$0.13	51% 70-66 (136)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 75¢	$31.5	$31.71	+$0.21	56% 463-370 (833)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$10	$10	+$0	19% 26-113 (139)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.25	+$0.05	42% 995-1363 (2358)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,948.77

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$12.99

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,512

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10.08

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

GC-P

Invested

$977.74

Value

$990.55

PnL

+$12.8

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

NM-P

Invested

$926.16

Value

$935.76

PnL

+$9.6

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$466.36

Value

$485.79

PnL

+$19.43

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$230.25

Value

$231.79

PnL

+$1.53

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

0xheavy888

Invested

$150

Value

$151

PnL

+$1

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$40.28

Value

$39.75

PnL

-$0.53

Record

32%

99-207 (306)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.09

Value

$38.09

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$37.5

Value

$37.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$37.5

Value

$37.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$34.8

Value

$35.03

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$33.35

Value

$33.22

PnL

-$0.13

Record

51%

70-66 (136)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

$31.71

PnL

+$0.21

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

26-113 (139)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.