Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Austria vs. Republic of Ireland: Both Teams to Score
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$14.33
50.8¢ → 49.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-29 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 49¢ | $991.96 | $1.0K | +$9.26 | 49% 3811-3974 (7785) |
ZZ Zzzz87CTR | Noavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $986.04 | -$29.5 | 61% 88-56 (144) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $67.26 | $70.01 | +$2.75 | 48% 286-304 (590) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $55.68 | $56.65 | +$0.97 | 56% 462-367 (829) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49¢ | $31.85 | $31.85 | +$0 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49¢ | $23.83 | $24.8 | +$0.97 | |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $16.63 | $17.67 | +$1.03 | 42% 991-1360 (2351) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $57.03 | $14.07 | +$2.03 | 48% 3205-3505 (6710) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $5 | $5.1 | +$0.1 | 37% 966-1631 (2597) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $4.23 | $4.23 | +$0 | 52% 1716-1565 (3281) |
Invested
$991.96
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$9.26
Record
49%
3811-3974 (7785)
Invested
$1,015.54
Value
$986.04
PnL
-$29.5
Record
61%
88-56 (144)
Invested
$67.26
Value
$70.01
PnL
+$2.75
Record
48%
286-304 (590)
Invested
$55.68
Value
$56.65
PnL
+$0.97
Record
56%
462-367 (829)
Both legs:
Invested
$16.63
Value
$17.67
PnL
+$1.03
Record
42%
991-1360 (2351)
Invested
$57.03
Value
$14.07
PnL
+$2.03
Record
48%
3205-3505 (6710)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
37%
966-1631 (2597)
Invested
$4.23
Value
$4.23
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
1716-1565 (3281)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.