Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Austria win on 2026-11-14?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 40¢ · $766 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$766.46
$0.42
39¢ → 39.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 61¢ | $290.38 | $288 | -$2.38 | 62% 1024-638 (1662) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $180.81 | $180.87 | +$0.06 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $130.31 | $131.99 | +$1.67 | 59% 3728-2540 (6268) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $53.7 | $54.39 | +$0.69 | 36% 319-557 (876) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $40.76 | $40.81 | +$0.05 | 43% 920-1244 (2164) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $31.8 | $32.07 | +$0.26 | 56% 426-340 (766) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.3¢ | $19.32 | $19.68 | +$0.36 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $92.65 | $11.71 | -$0.29 | 32% 92-195 (287) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $4.99 | $4.99 | +$0 | 52% 66-62 (128) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $1.95 | +$0 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
Invested
$290.38
Value
$288
PnL
-$2.38
Record
62%
1024-638 (1662)
Invested
$180.81
Value
$180.87
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$130.31
Value
$131.99
PnL
+$1.67
Record
59%
3728-2540 (6268)
Invested
$53.7
Value
$54.39
PnL
+$0.69
Record
36%
319-557 (876)
Invested
$40.76
Value
$40.81
PnL
+$0.05
Record
43%
920-1244 (2164)
Invested
$31.8
Value
$32.07
PnL
+$0.26
Record
56%
426-340 (766)
Invested
$19.32
Value
$19.68
PnL
+$0.36
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$92.65
Value
$11.71
PnL
-$0.29
Record
32%
92-195 (287)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
66-62 (128)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.