Armenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 5.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$95

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 99.7¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,455

Combined PnL-$0.11

Over6 traders

Total Value$95.77

Total Shares2,449

Combined PnL-$94.89

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-51 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 96¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$0	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 96.1¢	$100.91	$100.8	-$0.11	40% 78-117 (195)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 5.7¢	$147.28	$65.86	-$81.42	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 4.8¢	$138.45	$18.82	-$12.54	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 2.4¢	$7.77	$7.43	-$0.34	36% 209-369 (578)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$2.5	$2	-$0.5	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 4.5¢	$1.59	$1.41	-$0.18	47% 532-590 (1122)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 2¢	$0.18	$0.26	+$0.08	54% 994-856 (1850)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,256

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$100.91

Value

$100.8

PnL

-$0.11

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$147.28

Value

$65.86

PnL

-$81.42

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$138.45

Value

$18.82

PnL

-$12.54

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.77

Value

$7.43

PnL

-$0.34

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.59

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$0.18

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.26

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-51 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.