Armenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 76¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Over24¢Under76¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$63.21

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 76¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,836

Combined PnL+$50.14

Over4 traders

Total Value$179.47

Total Shares768

Combined PnL+$13.07

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 76¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$34.24	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 76¢	$751.59	$771.07	+$19.48	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
0xheavy888	Underavg 79¢	$316	$314	-$2	54% 274-237 (511)
nigiri99	Underavg 77¢	$182.49	$181.31	-$1.19	52% 352-328 (680)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 21¢	$117.81	$131.83	+$14.02	32% 538-1125 (1663)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 79¢	$77.96	$77.51	-$0.45	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$41.19	$40.33	-$0.86	33% 553-1132 (1685)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$6.15	$6.3	+$0.15	41% 544-784 (1328)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 76¢	$4.37	$4.43	+$0.06	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$1.25	$1	-$0.25	33% 534-1108 (1642)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,732.18

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$34.24

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$751.59

Value

$771.07

PnL

+$19.48

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$316

Value

$314

PnL

-$2

Record

54%

274-237 (511)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$182.49

Value

$181.31

PnL

-$1.19

Record

52%

352-328 (680)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$117.81

Value

$131.83

PnL

+$14.02

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$77.96

Value

$77.51

PnL

-$0.45

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.19

Value

$40.33

PnL

-$0.86

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.15

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.15

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$4.37

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.25

Value

PnL

-$0.25

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.