Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Armenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 47¢ · $356 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$356.11
$0.23
46.9¢ → 46.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntoriCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $190.47 | $188.44 | -$2.03 | 47% 1401-1566 (2967) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $68.9 | $69.55 | +$0.65 | 47% 1845-2082 (3927) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $31.8 | $32.1 | +$0.3 | 53% 177-159 (336) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $26.77 | $27.35 | +$0.58 | 33% 503-1013 (1516) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $19.67 | $20.05 | +$0.38 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $15.98 | $16.27 | +$0.29 | 53% 806-703 (1509) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.35 | +$0.05 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
Invested
$190.47
Value
$188.44
PnL
-$2.03
Record
47%
1401-1566 (2967)
Invested
$68.9
Value
$69.55
PnL
+$0.65
Record
47%
1845-2082 (3927)
Invested
$31.8
Value
$32.1
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
177-159 (336)
Invested
$26.77
Value
$27.35
PnL
+$0.58
Record
33%
503-1013 (1516)
Invested
$19.67
Value
$20.05
PnL
+$0.38
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Invested
$15.98
Value
$16.27
PnL
+$0.29
Record
53%
806-703 (1509)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.05
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.