Armenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 68¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Over68¢Under32¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$6.41

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 67.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,611

Combined PnL-$29.94

Under5 traders

Total Value$578.2

Total Shares1,779

Combined PnL+$36.35

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Overavg 71¢	$568	$540	-$28	54% 272-234 (506)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 67¢	$393.96	$396.9	+$2.94	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 29.3¢	$254.78	$282.27	+$27.49	32% 536-1124 (1660)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 33¢	$194.04	$191.1	-$2.94	52% 350-326 (676)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 70.1¢	$93.13	$89.61	-$3.52	61% 956-608 (1564)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$59.15	$68.65	+$9.51	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 69¢	$62.59	$61.23	-$1.36	48% 2125-2324 (4449)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$28.12	$29.48	+$1.36	33% 551-1131 (1682)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$5.77	$6.7	+$0.93	50% 1226-1249 (2475)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$568

Value

$540

PnL

-$28

Record

54%

272-234 (506)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$393.96

Value

$396.9

PnL

+$2.94

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$254.78

Value

$282.27

PnL

+$27.49

Record

32%

536-1124 (1660)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$194.04

Value

$191.1

PnL

-$2.94

Record

52%

350-326 (676)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$93.13

Value

$89.61

PnL

-$3.52

Record

61%

956-608 (1564)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.15

Value

$68.65

PnL

+$9.51

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$62.59

Value

$61.23

PnL

-$1.36

Record

48%

2125-2324 (4449)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.12

Value

$29.48

PnL

+$1.36

Record

33%

551-1131 (1682)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.77

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$0.93

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.