Armenia vs. Cyprus: Armenia O/U 1.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 96¢ · $301 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 56%
$300.59
-$6.56
55.3¢ → 96¢
+73% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Underavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $184 | -$16 | 83% 95-20 (115) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 70.4¢ | $53.86 | $56.57 | +$7.18 | 51% 2572-2488 (5060) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $17.25 | $32.13 | +$14.88 | 53% 6205-5498 (11703) |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $10.38 | $11.85 | +$1.47 | 27% 184-493 (677) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $10.12 | $11 | +$0.88 | 44% 405-509 (914) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 21.7¢ | $8.15 | $1.88 | -$6.27 | 47% 549-607 (1156) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $1.96 | $1.26 | -$0.7 | 34% 564-1115 (1679) |
RO Rocko33CTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $8.4 | $1 | -$7.4 | 66% 31-16 (47) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $0.9 | -$0.6 | 32% 542-1133 (1675) |
Invested
$1,014
Value
$184
PnL
-$16
Record
83%
95-20 (115)
Invested
$53.86
Value
$56.57
PnL
+$7.18
Record
51%
2572-2488 (5060)
Invested
$17.25
Value
$32.13
PnL
+$14.88
Record
53%
6205-5498 (11703)
Invested
$10.38
Value
$11.85
PnL
+$1.47
Record
27%
184-493 (677)
Invested
$10.12
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.88
Record
44%
405-509 (914)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$8.15
Value
$1.88
PnL
-$6.27
Record
47%
549-607 (1156)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$1.26
PnL
-$0.7
Record
34%
564-1115 (1679)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$1
PnL
-$7.4
Record
66%
31-16 (47)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$0.6
Record
32%
542-1133 (1675)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.