Exact Score: Armenia 1 - 1 Cyprus?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 86¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$162.86
$5
85.9¢ → 85.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-29 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $80.45 | $81.77 | +$1.32 | 33% 556-1107 (1663) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $49.02 | $49.02 | -$0 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $11.19 | $11.19 | +$0 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $7.95 | $8.04 | +$0.09 | 53% 925-815 (1740) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $5.3 | $5.3 | -$0 | 33% 533-1106 (1639) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.81 | $4.5 | +$3.69 | 48% 2153-2339 (4492) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $2.1 | $2.03 | -$0.07 | 52% 350-326 (676) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $1.04 | $1.01 | -$0.03 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
Invested
$80.45
Value
$81.77
PnL
+$1.32
Record
33%
556-1107 (1663)
Invested
$49.02
Value
$49.02
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Invested
$11.19
Value
$11.19
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
Invested
$7.95
Value
$8.04
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
925-815 (1740)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$5.3
PnL
-$0
Record
33%
533-1106 (1639)
Invested
$0.81
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$3.69
Record
48%
2153-2339 (4492)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.07
Record
52%
350-326 (676)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.01
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.