Exact Score: Armenia 0 - 1 Cyprus?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 89¢ · $726 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 14%
1 arb excluded
$725.65
$9.24
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b | Noavg 89¢ | $517.44 | $514.53 | -$2.91 | — |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $60.5 | $62.38 | +$1.88 | 59% 3534-2416 (5950) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 11¢ | $38.5 | $40.25 | +$1.75 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88¢ | $22 | $22.13 | +$0.13 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $54.65 | $60.11 | +$5.47 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $26 | $28.6 | +$2.6 | 33% 551-1131 (1682) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $25.86 | $25.86 | +$0 | 33% 556-1107 (1663) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $24.53 | $25.65 | +$1.12 | 26% 152-427 (579) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.75 | $5.23 | +$0.47 | 50% 1226-1249 (2475) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.81 | $3.3 | +$2.49 | 48% 2153-2339 (4492) |
Invested
$517.44
Value
$514.53
PnL
-$2.91
Record
—
Invested
$60.5
Value
$62.38
PnL
+$1.88
Record
59%
3534-2416 (5950)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.65
Value
$60.11
PnL
+$5.47
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Invested
$26
Value
$28.6
PnL
+$2.6
Record
33%
551-1131 (1682)
Invested
$25.86
Value
$25.86
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
556-1107 (1663)
Invested
$24.53
Value
$25.65
PnL
+$1.12
Record
26%
152-427 (579)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$5.23
PnL
+$0.47
Record
50%
1226-1249 (2475)
Invested
$0.81
Value
$3.3
PnL
+$2.49
Record
48%
2153-2339 (4492)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.