Will Cyprus win on 2026-11-12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 69¢ · $340 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
1 arb excluded
$339.6
-$2.24
69.2¢ → 68.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | 100% 71-0 (71) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $100 | $137 | +$37 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $100 | $63 | -$37 | |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $59.35 | $58.09 | -$1.26 | 37% 30-51 (81) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $36.18 | $35.92 | -$0.26 | 31% 438-969 (1407) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $59.16 | $14.38 | -$0.78 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $12.09 | $12.18 | +$0.09 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $11.13 | $11.05 | -$0.08 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $4.49 | $4.57 | +$0.07 | 48% 12-13 (25) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $3.43 | -$0.02 | 40% 438-657 (1095) |
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
100%
71-0 (71)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.35
Value
$58.09
PnL
-$1.26
Record
37%
30-51 (81)
Invested
$36.18
Value
$35.92
PnL
-$0.26
Record
31%
438-969 (1407)
Invested
$59.16
Value
$14.38
PnL
-$0.78
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$12.09
Value
$12.18
PnL
+$0.09
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$11.13
Value
$11.05
PnL
-$0.08
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Invested
$4.49
Value
$4.57
PnL
+$0.07
Record
48%
12-13 (25)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.43
PnL
-$0.02
Record
40%
438-657 (1095)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.