Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Armenia vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 50¢ · $552 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$551.84
$9.29
48.4¢ → 49.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 47.2¢ | $207.3 | $219.57 | +$12.27 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Noavg 50¢ | $200 | $198 | -$2 | 54% 272-234 (506) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $51.84 | $48 | -$3.84 | 52% 350-326 (676) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $23.6 | $23.84 | +$0.24 | 33% 551-1131 (1682) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $20.87 | $21.3 | +$0.43 | 33% 533-1106 (1639) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.6¢ | $16.4 | $17.6 | +$1.19 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.3¢ | $11.11 | $12 | +$0.89 | 53% 925-815 (1740) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $11.42 | $11.53 | +$0.11 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
Invested
$207.3
Value
$219.57
PnL
+$12.27
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$200
Value
$198
PnL
-$2
Record
54%
272-234 (506)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$51.84
Value
$48
PnL
-$3.84
Record
52%
350-326 (676)
Invested
$23.6
Value
$23.84
PnL
+$0.24
Record
33%
551-1131 (1682)
Invested
$20.87
Value
$21.3
PnL
+$0.43
Record
33%
533-1106 (1639)
Invested
$16.4
Value
$17.6
PnL
+$1.19
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
Invested
$11.11
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.89
Record
53%
925-815 (1740)
Invested
$11.42
Value
$11.53
PnL
+$0.11
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.