Will Armenia win on 2026-11-12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 60¢ · $376 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$375.64
$1.05
58.8¢ → 60¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 58.3¢ | $154.34 | $155.94 | +$1.61 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 59.4¢ | $81.33 | $80.83 | -$0.5 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $62.75 | $62.75 | -$0 | 60% 3453-2346 (5799) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $53.41 | $53.39 | -$0.02 | 61% 908-580 (1488) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.51 | $11.51 | +$0 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.26 | $11.23 | -$0.04 | 35% 279-508 (787) |
Invested
$154.34
Value
$155.94
PnL
+$1.61
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
Invested
$81.33
Value
$80.83
PnL
-$0.5
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
Invested
$62.75
Value
$62.75
PnL
-$0
Record
60%
3453-2346 (5799)
Invested
$53.41
Value
$53.39
PnL
-$0.02
Record
61%
908-580 (1488)
Invested
$11.51
Value
$11.51
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
Invested
$11.26
Value
$11.23
PnL
-$0.04
Record
35%
279-508 (787)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.