Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (73%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Andorra vs. Gibraltar: O/U 2.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 28¢ · $506 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
9
Over 44%
$505.63
-$0.86
28.4¢ → 27.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 28¢ | $124.27 | $128.71 | +$4.44 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
 fxwd12345CTR | Overavg 29¢ | $100 | $94.83 | -$5.17 | 76% 32-10 (42) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 71¢ | $84.2 | $84.2 | -$0 | 53% 390-340 (730) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 71.6¢ | $74.25 | $73.66 | -$0.59 | 56% 309-246 (555) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $64.8 | $63.9 | -$0.9 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $33.42 | $34.61 | +$1.19 | 43% 809-1065 (1874) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 71¢ | $12.07 | $12.07 | +$0 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 71¢ | $8.74 | $8.74 | -$0 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $4.73 | $4.9 | +$0.17 | 49% 1669-1706 (3375) |
Invested
$124.27
Value
$128.71
PnL
+$4.44
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
fxwd12345CTRInvested
$100
Value
$94.83
PnL
-$5.17
Record
76%
32-10 (42)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$84.2
Value
$84.2
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
390-340 (730)
Invested
$74.25
Value
$73.66
PnL
-$0.59
Record
56%
309-246 (555)
Invested
$64.8
Value
$63.9
PnL
-$0.9
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$33.42
Value
$34.61
PnL
+$1.19
Record
43%
809-1065 (1874)
Invested
$12.07
Value
$12.07
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$8.74
Value
$8.74
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Invested
$4.73
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.17
Record
49%
1669-1706 (3375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.