Spread: Andorra (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Gibraltar (38%) · Gibraltar at 72¢ · $348 held · ends Nov 13

Andorra28¢Gibraltar72¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gibraltar

Consensus Traders

Gibraltar 38%

Total Value

$348.46

Combined PnL

$0.75

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 71.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralGibraltar at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gibraltar

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Andorra28%

Gibraltar72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gibraltar3 traders

Total Value$243.86

Total Shares340

Combined PnL-$6.34

Andorra5 traders

Total Value$104.6

Total Shares369

Combined PnL+$7.09

Gibraltar — 38%Andorra — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Gibraltar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAndorra 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Andorra 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Gibraltaravg 72¢	$165.5	$164.35	-$1.15	53% 390-340 (730)
38 38791873984189<$100	Gibraltaravg 77¢	$69.3	$64.8	-$4.5	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Andorraavg 27.8¢	$55.84	$57.15	+$1.31	34% 736-1405 (2141)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Andorraavg 23.4¢	$25.8	$30.91	+$5.11	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
GH ghorrock<$100	Gibraltaravg 74.7¢	$20.93	$14.72	-$0.69	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Andorraavg 28¢	$11.81	$12.02	+$0.21	35% 736-1380 (2116)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Andorraavg 25¢	$3.69	$4.13	+$0.44	35% 750-1386 (2136)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Andorraavg 27¢	$0.37	$0.38	+$0.01	54% 1849-1555 (3404)

0xheavy888

Gibraltar

Invested

$165.5

Value

$164.35

PnL

-$1.15

Record

53%

390-340 (730)

38791873984189<$100

Gibraltar

Invested

$69.3

Value

$64.8

PnL

-$4.5

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

VenusianCTR<$100

Andorra

Invested

$55.84

Value

$57.15

PnL

+$1.31

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Andorra

Invested

$25.8

Value

$30.91

PnL

+$5.11

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

ghorrock<$100

Gibraltar

Invested

$20.93

Value

$14.72

PnL

-$0.69

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

LimousinCTR<$100

Andorra

Invested

$11.81

Value

$12.02

PnL

+$0.21

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Andorra

Invested

$3.69

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.44

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Andorra

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Research grade

NeutralGibraltar at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Gibraltar

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Gibraltar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAndorra 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Andorra 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gibraltar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.