Andorra vs. Gibraltar: Both Teams to Score

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (18%) · No at 71¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 13

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 18%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$38.61

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 70.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,940

Combined PnL-$4.97

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,599

Combined PnL-$33.64

No — 18%Yes — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Noavg 70.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$3.66	53% 472-427 (899)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 30.5¢	$885.91	$856.5	-$29.41	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
0xheavy888	Noavg 70.7¢	$380.34	$379.03	-$1.31	53% 390-340 (730)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$154.58	$157.24	+$2.67	33% 251-499 (750)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$120.09	$122.16	+$2.07	35% 736-1380 (2116)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 69.8¢	$119.55	$117.82	-$1.73	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.8¢	$71.25	$71.43	+$0.18
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.2¢	$48.29	$46.39	-$1.91
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.4¢	$64.91	$58.97	-$5.94	43% 809-1065 (1874)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$51.63	$49.96	-$1.67	36% 763-1361 (2124)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.4¢	$49.9	$49.2	-$0.7	56% 309-246 (555)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$32.15	$32.7	+$0.55	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.9¢	$24.64	$23.53	-$1.11	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$6.12	$6.02	-$0.1	49% 1669-1706 (3375)

nigiri99

Invested

$1,697.07

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$3.66

Record

53%

472-427 (899)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$885.91

Value

$856.5

PnL

-$29.41

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

0xheavy888

Invested

$380.34

Value

$379.03

PnL

-$1.31

Record

53%

390-340 (730)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$154.58

Value

$157.24

PnL

+$2.67

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.09

Value

$122.16

PnL

+$2.07

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$119.55

Value

$117.82

PnL

-$1.73

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

Both legs:

Invested

$64.91

Value

$58.97

PnL

-$5.94

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.63

Value

$49.96

PnL

-$1.67

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.9

Value

$49.2

PnL

-$0.7

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.15

Value

$32.7

PnL

+$0.55

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.64

Value

$23.53

PnL

-$1.11

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.12

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.