Albania vs. Finland: O/U 4.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 89¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over11¢Under89¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$18.68

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 89.1¢

-8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over11%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,288

Combined PnL-$44.25

Over4 traders

Total Value$141.13

Total Shares2,385

Combined PnL+$25.57

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 96.9¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$39.83	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 93.7¢	$513.76	$651.07	+$137.31	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
└ Under leg	Underavg 93.7¢	$447.1	$424.41	-$22.68
└ Over leg	Overavg 3.3¢	$66.66	$226.65	+$159.99
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 3.2¢	$64.4	$92.55	+$28.15	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
FO forecastication4<$100	Underavg 93¢	$76.26	$76.26	+$0	27% 104-276 (380)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 93¢	$74	$70.9	-$3.1	38% 15-25 (40)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 93¢	$33.48	$33.48	-$0	42% 97-133 (230)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 3.7¢	$22.26	$30.69	+$8.42	35% 221-416 (637)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 93¢	$28.51	$28.51	+$0	54% 1032-892 (1924)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 93.4¢	$28.92	$27.6	-$1.32	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 7¢	$243.11	$11.8	-$3.77	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$13.33	$6.1	-$7.24	47% 1704-1945 (3649)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,964.72

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$39.83

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$513.76

Value

$651.07

PnL

+$137.31

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

Both legs:

Under$447.193.7¢-$22.68

Over$66.663.3¢+$159.99

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.4

Value

$92.55

PnL

+$28.15

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

forecastication4<$100

Under

Invested

$76.26

Value

$76.26

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

104-276 (380)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$74

Value

$70.9

PnL

-$3.1

Record

38%

15-25 (40)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$33.48

Value

$33.48

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

97-133 (230)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.26

Value

$30.69

PnL

+$8.42

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$28.51

Value

$28.51

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$28.92

Value

$27.6

PnL

-$1.32

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$243.11

Value

$11.8

PnL

-$3.77

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.33

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$7.24

Record

47%

1704-1945 (3649)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 89%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.6%

89.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.