Albania vs. Finland: O/U 3.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 86¢ · $741 held · ends Nov 12

Over14¢Under86¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$741.49

Combined PnL

-$6.9

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 85.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$508.98

Total Shares596

Combined PnL+$2.52

Over5 traders

Total Value$106.59

Total Shares740

Combined PnL-$9.42

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 85¢	$339.99	$341.99	+$2	54% 274-237 (511)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 85¢	$136	$136	+$0	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 17.2¢	$138.14	$125.92	-$12.21	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
└ Under leg	Underavg 83¢	$64.64	$66.2	+$1.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 17.2¢	$73.5	$59.73	-$13.77
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$56.53	$54.65	-$1.88	33% 558-1109 (1667)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$33.79	$32.66	-$1.13	32% 538-1125 (1663)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 85¢	$19.21	$19.32	+$0.11	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 17.4¢	$15.52	$12.5	-$3.02	41% 544-784 (1328)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 82¢	$11.25	$11.66	+$0.41	53% 933-821 (1754)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$8.07	$5.38	-$2.69	65% 136-72 (208)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$2.1	$1.4	-$0.7	49% 1228-1254 (2482)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$339.99

Value

$341.99

PnL

+$2

Record

54%

274-237 (511)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$136

Value

$136

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$138.14

Value

$125.92

PnL

-$12.21

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Both legs:

Under$64.6483¢+$1.56

Over$73.517.2¢-$13.77

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.53

Value

$54.65

PnL

-$1.88

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.79

Value

$32.66

PnL

-$1.13

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$19.21

Value

$19.32

PnL

+$0.11

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.52

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$3.02

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.66

PnL

+$0.41

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.07

Value

$5.38

PnL

-$2.69

Record

65%

136-72 (208)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.7

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.