Albania vs. Finland: O/U 2.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 65¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Over36¢Under64¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$6.06

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 64.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$585.45

Total Shares880

Combined PnL+$7.68

Over6 traders

Total Value$322.03

Total Shares865

Combined PnL-$1.62

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 34.7¢	$375.56	$389.51	+$13.94	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.7¢	$221.42	$220	-$1.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.6¢	$154.14	$169.5	+$15.36
38 38791873984189	Underavg 63.6¢	$281.49	$289.64	+$8.15	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
0xheavy888	Underavg 65¢	$259.99	$257.99	-$2	54% 278-237 (515)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 35¢	$139.16	$141.14	+$1.99	32% 538-1128 (1666)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 35¢	$117.49	$119.17	+$1.68	33% 558-1111 (1669)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 60¢	$57.14	$55.37	-$1.76	52% 187-174 (361)
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$31.8	$34.98	+$3.18
└ Over leg	Overavg 41¢	$25.34	$20.39	-$4.94
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$46.22	$42.76	-$3.47	41% 552-797 (1349)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 62.4¢	$31.16	$32.64	+$1.49	54% 994-856 (1850)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$11.08	$9.62	-$1.46	33% 553-1135 (1688)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$7	$6.6	-$0.4	36% 209-369 (578)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 64¢	$5.13	$5.17	+$0.04	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$2.7	$2.74	+$0.04	32% 534-1112 (1646)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$375.56

Value

$389.51

PnL

+$13.94

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Both legs:

Over$221.4234.7¢-$1.42

Under$154.1459.6¢+$15.36

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$281.49

Value

$289.64

PnL

+$8.15

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$259.99

Value

$257.99

PnL

-$2

Record

54%

278-237 (515)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$139.16

Value

$141.14

PnL

+$1.99

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$117.49

Value

$119.17

PnL

+$1.68

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$57.14

Value

$55.37

PnL

-$1.76

Record

52%

187-174 (361)

Both legs:

Invested

$46.22

Value

$42.76

PnL

-$3.47

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$31.16

Value

$32.64

PnL

+$1.49

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.08

Value

$9.62

PnL

-$1.46

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.74

PnL

+$0.04

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.