Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Albania vs. Finland: O/U 1.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 39¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 12

Over62¢Under38¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$62.1

Smart Money Entry

39¢ → 38.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares7,971

Combined PnL-$41.78

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,969

Combined PnL-$20.31

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 39.3¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$56.8	51% 2082-2008 (4090)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 59¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$87.14	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
└ Over leg	Overavg 59¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$67.65
└ Under leg	Underavg 37.7¢	$935.38	$954.87	+$19.49
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 62¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$13.14	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 62¢	$467.25	$471.13	+$3.88	59% 3535-2417 (5952)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$310	$307.5	-$2.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 37¢	$157.25	$163.63	+$6.38
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 62¢	$467.25	$471.13	+$3.88	26% 153-428 (581)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$310	$307.5	-$2.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 37¢	$157.25	$163.63	+$6.38
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 37¢	$237.51	$247.14	+$9.63	36% 209-370 (579)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 64.4¢	$175.68	$167.71	-$7.97	61% 962-608 (1570)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 37.3¢	$134.18	$103.57	+$3.96	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$19.09	$19.09	-$0	32% 542-1134 (1676)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 59¢	$15.27	$15.8	+$0.54	41% 562-807 (1369)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 61¢	$10.98	$11.16	+$0.18	52% 353-330 (683)
RN1<$100	Overavg 61¢	$10.24	$10.32	+$0.08	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$29.43	$6.1	+$1.26	54% 997-856 (1853)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$4.99	$5.06	+$0.06	35% 7-13 (20)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 37.5¢	$3.76	$3.86	+$0.1	49% 1261-1293 (2554)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$2,743.18

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$56.8

Record

51%

2082-2008 (4090)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,542.35

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$87.14

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Both legs:

Over$1,606.9759¢+$67.65

Under$935.3837.7¢+$19.49

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,643.41

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$13.14

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$467.25

Value

$471.13

PnL

+$3.88

Record

59%

3535-2417 (5952)

Both legs:

Over$31062¢-$2.5

Under$157.2537¢+$6.38

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$467.25

Value

$471.13

PnL

+$3.88

Record

26%

153-428 (581)

Both legs:

Over$31062¢-$2.5

Under$157.2537¢+$6.38

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$237.51

Value

$247.14

PnL

+$9.63

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$175.68

Value

$167.71

PnL

-$7.97

Record

61%

962-608 (1570)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$134.18

Value

$103.57

PnL

+$3.96

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.09

Value

$19.09

PnL

-$0

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$15.27

Value

$15.8

PnL

+$0.54

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$10.98

Value

$11.16

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

353-330 (683)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$10.24

Value

$10.32

PnL

+$0.08

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.43

Value

$6.1

PnL

+$1.26

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.99

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

35%

7-13 (20)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.