Albania vs. Finland: O/U 0.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 87¢ · $935 held · ended Nov 12

Over87¢Under13¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

Total Value

$935.24

Combined PnL

-$3.02

Smart Money Entry

87.1¢ → 86.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over87%

Under14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$889.82

Total Shares1,029

Combined PnL-$5.61

Under7 traders

Total Value$45.42

Total Shares351

Combined PnL+$2.59

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-64 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 87¢	$883.38	$878.3	-$5.08	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$19.5	$20.25	+$0.75	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$9.75	$11.53	+$1.77	40% 80-118 (198)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Overavg 91¢	$12.05	$11.52	-$0.53	66% 137-72 (209)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 12.7¢	$5.96	$5.17	-$0.79	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$3.37	$3.99	+$0.61	54% 997-856 (1853)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$2.92	$3.16	+$0.24	33% 556-1141 (1697)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$0.67	$0.67	+$0	32% 542-1134 (1676)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$0.65	$0.65	-$0	41% 562-807 (1369)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$883.38

Value

$878.3

PnL

-$5.08

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.5

Value

$20.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.75

Value

$11.53

PnL

+$1.77

Record

40%

80-118 (198)

thatsabing0<$100

Over

Invested

$12.05

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$0.53

Record

66%

137-72 (209)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.96

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$0.79

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.37

Value

$3.99

PnL

+$0.61

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.92

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0.24

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-64 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.